In its latest investor memo, titled “The Great Derisking of Bitcoin,” Bitwise Asset Management has taken a bold stance on the future of the world’s original cryptocurrency. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan delivered a detailed analysis in a dispatch dated March 25, 2025, stating, “Now is the best time in history to purchase bitcoin (on a risk-adjusted basis).” The memo, which includes reflections on Bitcoin’s early days and an assessment of its biggest milestones, offers insight into why Bitwise believes the leading digital asset’s risk profile has shifted dramatically in recent years.
Best Time To Buy Bitcoin
In his opening remarks, Hougan recounts his introduction to Bitcoin back in February 2011, when he was working as part of a financial analytics team at ETF.com. During a routine market review meeting, one of Hougan’s young analysts brought up the fact that Bitcoin had just crossed $1—a landmark event that triggered a discussion about its underlying technology and potential use cases. “If I had invested $1,000 in bitcoin after that meeting, it would be worth $88 million today,” Hougan laments in hindsight.
This anecdote, however, is not simply a story of missed opportunity. Hougan underscores the risks that were pervasive at the time, emphasizing how the idea of transferring $1,000 to a “random PayPal address” through a nascent crypto exchange was a nerve-racking and largely untested proposition. Moreover, custody, regulatory clarity, and government oversight were virtually nonexistent, effectively turning any cryptocurrency exposure into a high-risk, high-reward gamble. “Throw in custody, regulatory, technological, and governmental risks … and putting $1,000 on bitcoin in 2011 was a massive gamble,” he explains.
Central to Hougan’s thesis is that Bitcoin has, over the years, methodically overcome nearly every existential threat that once loomed. He notes that early attempts to create digital cash—such as the National Security Agency’s 1997 paper titled “How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash”—never fully took off, making it far from guaranteed that Bitcoin itself would succeed.
From there, improvements in trading venues and custodial solutions gradually reduced the barriers to entry. When Coinbase launched in late 2011, it marked a pivotal moment by offering a more user-friendly and trustworthy on-ramp for retail and institutional investors alike. Major custodial providers, including Fidelity, would later extend their operational and brand strength to crypto, further mitigating concerns over security and storage.
Simultaneously, the once-pervasive fears of regulatory clampdowns began to wane. In 2024, the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US removed another major roadblock. Hougan observes that broader acceptance in traditional financial markets made it easier for institutions to justify adding digital assets to their portfolios withou